In recent years, with the discovery of new gas fields and the development of technology, China's natural gas production has increased year by year, but it still can not catch up with the growth rate of domestic demand. According to the data released by the national development and Reform Commission, from January to may, the production of natural gas increased by 7.3% year-on-year, the consumption of natural gas increased by 15.9% year-on-year, and the imported natural gas was 16.3 billion cubic meters, an increase of 42.8%
Since there is no waste residue and waste water after natural gas combustion, it has the advantages of safe use, high calorific value and cleanliness compared with coal, oil and other energy sources. Therefore, in recent years, domestic natural gas demand has maintained a sharp upward trend.
In order to meet the domestic natural gas demand, in recent years, China has further developed other gas source introduction channels, accelerated the construction of reserve depots and LNG terminals, and entered the peak of natural gas pipeline network construction. The construction of pipeline network has brought guarantee to the safety of natural gas supply in China, but the price rise caused by the increase of external dependence and cost also follows.
Diversified gas sources to ensure natural gas supply
There are two main ways to import natural gas in China: pipeline and LNG maritime transportation. At present, the completed foreign natural gas import pipelines in China are mainly the Central Asian natural gas pipeline. The China Myanmar natural gas pipeline is under construction, and the natural gas import with Russia is delayed because it is difficult to reach agreement on price, gas source and other issues. It is understood that since the official gas transmission to the second line of "west to East Gas Transmission" in December 2009, as of December 31, 2011, the natural gas entering Central Asian countries at Horgos port in Xinjiang has reached 19.683 billion cubic meters.
With the completion and connection of the second west east gas pipeline in 2011, the second west east gas pipeline connects 20 pipelines already built and under construction in China, forming a nearly 40000 km natural gas pipeline network across the country, which will basically cover 27 provinces, cities, autonomous regions and Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. At present, the first and second lines of West to east gas transmission line operate steadily, and the third line is expected to start construction by the end of the year.
According to the 12th Five Year Plan, China will "build the second phase of China Kazakhstan crude oil pipeline, the domestic section of China Myanmar oil and gas pipeline, the second phase of Central Asia natural gas pipeline, and the third and fourth lines of West to east gas transmission; the total length of oil and gas pipeline will reach about 150000km"
Another important supplement to air intake is offshore LNG import. Unlike developed countries such as Europe, America and Japan, the construction of LNG terminal in China started late but developed rapidly. Xu Bo, senior economist of the Marketing Institute of CNPC economic and Technological Research Institute, introduced that by the end of 2011, China had put into operation five LNG terminals in Shenzhen, Fujian, Shanghai, Jiangsu and Dalian, with a total receiving capacity of 15.8 million tons / year; Guangdong Jieyang, Zhuhai Gaolan Island, Zhejiang Ningbo Beilun port, Hebei Qinhuangdao, Hainan Yangpu and other terminals are under construction. When it is completed in 2014, China's LNG receiving capacity will reach 33.8 million tons / year.
Zhuo Chuang information said that China has always taken natural gas as a civil fuel as the basic idea. At present, LNG import resources are more and more abundant, and LNG terminals are mostly built at the end of long-distance pipelines. Therefore, the entry of LNG import resources into the pipe network will well avoid the shortage of gas consumption in winter.
High cost slows down the construction of gas storage
Gas storage is a scarce peak shaving facility. Cushion gas is expensive, construction investment is large, construction requires a long period, can not be immediate, and is limited by geological conditions. In addition, the reservoir construction technology is imperfect. This is also the reason for the slow construction of underground gas storage in China.
Zhuo Chuang information believes that the underground gas storage is an indispensable supporting system for the long-distance natural gas transmission project, but when the natural gas supply pattern is sufficient, the role of the gas storage will be slightly weakened. Xu Bo, senior economist of the Marketing Institute of CNPC economic and Technological Research Institute, pointed out: "the construction of underground gas storage in China is about to enter a climax stage." at present, the gas storage already built are Dagang gas storage group, Jing 58, Jing 51 and Yong 22 gas storage, Jintan gas storage in southern Jiangsu, Liuzhuang gas storage in Northern Jiangsu, etc.
Yan Dafan, a pipeline expert and professor of China University of petroleum, stressed that because of the strict requirements for the construction of gas storage, the construction of gas storage must be planned in advance, and the geological conditions for the construction of gas storage in China are relatively poor. From the perspective of efficiency, gas storage is generally built in a favorable position 150 ~ 200km away from the consumption center. These conditions make the site selection and construction of gas storage not easy. It takes at least 6 ~ 8 years to build a salt cavern gas storage and 3 ~ 4 years to use the condensate gas field.
During the 12th Five Year Plan period, PetroChina will invest hundreds of billions of yuan to build 10 gas storage clusters in Henan, Jiangsu, Sichuan and other places, and the working gas volume will reach 22.4 billion cubic meters.
Cost increase or gas price rise
At present, most of the natural gas consumed in China comes from self-produced. However, driven by the rigid demand of the expanding domestic natural gas market, in the face of limited domestic production increase, China's natural gas supply is stretched, and we still need to import natural gas to meet the growing demand.
National Development and Reform Commission data show that China's natural gas imports continue to increase. From January to may, 45.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas were produced, with a year-on-year increase of 7.3%; 16.3 billion cubic meters of imported natural gas, an increase of 42.8%; Natural gas consumption was 61.3 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 15.9%
Abundant foreign natural gas supply is of great significance to alleviate China's natural gas supply, but the cost is also obvious. In addition to the pipeline construction cost required for the introduction of natural gas, the high price of foreign natural gas virtually brings huge loss pressure to China's oil and gas enterprises, as well as huge price rise pressure to China's low gas price.
PetroChina insiders had previously said that PetroChina's loss of importing 1 cubic meter of natural gas from Central Asia was about 1 yuan. Hou Chuangye, deputy general manager of PetroChina natural gas pipeline, also said that the duty paid price of "local gas" arriving at Horgos port in China is 2.02 yuan / m3, and the average transmission and distribution cost of the second west east gas transmission line is 1.1 yuan / m3. Therefore, the price of arriving at gas receiving stations in various cities has reached 3.12 yuan / m3.
One of the biggest differences in Sino Russian natural gas cooperation, which has been negotiated for several years but failed, is the price. PetroChina initially prepared to buy Russian natural gas at a price of about US $165 per thousand cubic meters. Later, with the surge of international oil and gas prices, it gradually increased to US $235 and once reached US $250 in last year's negotiations. However, Russia insists that natural gas exports to China should refer to the price standard for natural gas exports to European countries, that is, US $350-400 per thousand cubic meters.
Xu Bo, senior economist of the market Institute of CNPC economic and Technological Research Institute, analyzed: "if we not only meet the requirements of Russia, but also make the domestic sales of China's imported natural gas without loss, the domestic natural gas price will need to more than double."
Li lingxuan, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang consulting, said that at present, there is a large gap in the spot price of natural gas in various regions of the world. If the gas price in a certain region is considered only, it will make the future natural gas price greatly affected by the gas source.
The person in charge of the national development and Reform Commission once responded that the ultimate goal of the reform of the natural gas price formation mechanism is to liberalize the ex factory price of natural gas, which is formed by market competition. It is proposed to adopt the pricing method of "market net return value", that is, the method of simulating the market, and convert the corresponding natural gas price based on the price of alternative energy formed by market competition.
Analysts were quoted as saying that since Guangdong and Guangxi adopted a relatively market-oriented net return method for pricing, and many cities have begun to raise gas prices, it is predicted that the reform of natural gas pricing mechanism will be promoted nationwide in the future. However, it is understood that experts from the gas Department of Guangdong oil and gas chamber of Commerce said that in the long run, the rise in natural gas prices is inevitable. However, it is not a good time to increase in the short term.